Scarlet Alert

Focus on the Issues!

2009-09-08T16:59:00.003-04:00

I haven't been at Whole Foods for awhile. I was laid off last spring, and WF's prices put them into the "discretionary" expense category. But I happened to visit one today. Doing so made me think about the broo-hah over WF CEO John Mackey's editorial in the WSJ -- read the unedited version. (Thanks, TW, for the link.)

There are 86 long screenfuls of comments; I only got through one. But my first impression was "What's all the fuss about?"

And then I realized it. His 7 (actually 8) points aren't at all unreasonable; people got pissed off at him because he said healthcare isn't a right. His unfortunate inclusion of that section derailed everyone away from the key points he made. And while I have not read all 1017 pages of the current draft of the healthcare reform bill, the summaries I've read (it's difficult to find one that isn't biased-- can anyone recommend some good sites?), make it seem like the following items are not addressed at all.

And frankly, while I am an Obama-loving liberal who would walk my kids five miles through the snow to have Obama speak to them (if I had any kids), I'm not sure I can disagree with the recommendations Mackey makes below. Some I don't know enough about. I invite comments, BUT, please keep your comments focused on the issues and the items below. I will delete any comments that get into personal attacks of anyone, or that veer off onto the topic healthcare as a right (or not). Go somewhere else for that. Please discuss the following points made by Mackey:

Remove the legal obstacles which slow the creation of high deductible health insurance plans and Health Savings Accounts.
Change the tax laws so that that employer-provided health insurance and individually owned health insurance have exactly the same tax benefits.
Repeal all state laws which prevent insurance companies from competing across state lines.
Repeal all government mandates regarding what insurance companies must cover.
Enact tort reform to end the ruinous lawsuits that force doctors into paying insurance costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.
Enact Medicare reform.
Permit individuals to make voluntary tax deductible donations on their IRS tax forms to help the millions of people who have no insurance...
(even though Mackey didn't number it): Address the root causes of disease and poor health.

Please share your thoughts. And remember: no flaming. no personality-bashing. and focus on the above. Thanks!

-- Scarlet

14 Reasons to Chill Out about Illegal Immigration

2008-09-12T09:17:00.003-04:00

Before I read What Makes Americans Vote Republican, I made the mistake of responding to a conservative in-law's rant about the 14 negative impacts of illegal immigration with the following. I did so because this in-law was spouting "facts" that were absolute B.S. So I went looking for "real" facts. The article above explains what's wrong with this approach when fighting the Right, but I hadn't read it yet.

Even so, I feel called to list here an alternative view of facts concerning the impact of illegal immigration on the U.S. economy, cuz damn it! I can't help myself!

14 Reasons To Chill-Out about Illegal Immigration

Source of data: Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, at the University of Arizona [PDF]

1. "non-citizen households" in Arizona had consumer spending, in 2004, of $4.41 billion.

2. That created an estimated 28,000 full-time jobs.

3. That spending generated tax revenues of approximately $318.6 million.

The typical "illegal immigrant" takes jobs that don't pay as well and which, for the most part, are shunned by the native born:

4. Almost 60 percent of agricultural workers were immigrants. [Take them away and what happens to the cost of food?]

6. About 22 percent of food preparers and servers were immigrants. [Take them away and what happens to the cost of food?]

7. About 35 to 41 percent of construction workers were immigrants.

8. About 46 percent of textile workers were immigrants

9. About 51 percent of landscaping workers were immigrants

10. About 8 percent of maintenance workers were immigrants.

11. Non-citizens, for their part, contributed $28.9 billion, or eight percent of Arizona's economic output, resulting in 278,000 full-time equivalent jobs. Their output included $10 billion in labor income, and $3.3 billion in other property income. The state tax revenues resulting from this economic activity were approximately $1.08 billion.

12. If the illegal workers were removed from the workforce:

Agriculture:
A fifteen percent workforce reduction in the agriculture sector would result in direct losses of 3,300 full-time-equivalent jobs, and losses of $600.9 million in output including lost labor income of $198.6 million, and lost other income of $116.1 million. The lost direct state tax revenue would be approximately $24.8 million.

Construction:
A fifteen percent workforce reduction in the construction sector would result in direct losses of 55,700 full-time-equivalent jobs, and $6.56
billion in output including lost labor income of $2.59 billion and
$450.5 million in other lost income. The direct lost state tax revenue
would be approximately $269.2 million.

Manufacturing:
A ten percent reduction in the manufacturing workforce would result in
direct losses of 12,300 full-time-equivalent jobs, and $3.77 billion in
output including lost labor income of $740.8 million, and lost other
income of $286.1 million. The lost direct state tax revenue would be
approximately $104.4 million.

Service industries:
In the service sectors analyzed, a sixteen percent
reduction in the labor force would translate to direct losses of 54,000
full-time equivalent-jobs, and lost output of $2.48 billion including
reduced labor income of $901.3 million, and reductions in other income
of $273.0 million. The lost direct state tax revenue would be
approximately $156.9 million.

13. The state of Arizona took in tax revenue of $1.64 billion from
immigrant workers while the amount the state spent on immigrants was
approximately $1.41 billion leaving a net benefit of $222.6 million to
the state coffers.

14. Shikha Dalmia, a senior analyst at the Reason Foundation noted: "A stunning two-thirds of illegal immigrants pay Medicare, Social Security and personal income taxes." And while they pay in, under US law they are forbidden to receive the
benefits for which they pay. "The only services that illegals can still
get are emergency medical care and K-12 education."

Aliens who are not self-employed have Social Security and Medicare taxes automatically withheld from their paychecks. Since undocumented workers have only fake numbers, they'll never be able to collect the benefits these taxes are meant to pay for.

Last year, the revenues from these fake [social security] numbers — that the Social
Security administration stashes in the "earnings suspense file" — added
up to 10 percent of the Social Security surplus. The file is growing,
on average, by more than $50 billion a year.

This is in Arizona ALONE!

Chill out, folks! Illegal immigration is NOT the problem that reactionaries claim it to be. It is a net CONTRIBUTION to the U.S., not a drain. Want to know what is DRAINING the U.S.?? The war in Iraq.

Scarlet Has Risen

2008-09-12T08:45:00.004-04:00

Scarlet's been sleeping the last couple of years. Too busy in her other life, too self-absorbed as is her nature.

But the increasing volume of the 2008 election season has reached her.

She's awake.

And she's mad as hell.

Frankly, I can't imagine Scarlett O'Hara giving a damn about U.S. politics and which candidate makes it to the White House. But that was the 1860s. And I'm not really Scarlett; I'm Scarlet, and scarlet with anger and frustration at the Bu%%sh*& going on between liberals and conservatives as this fight for the White House gets uglier and uglier and stupider and stupider.

So I'm re-invigorating the "Scarlet Alert" blog (and emailing a few of you to let you know I'm doing so) and reframing it away from "peak oil" to "peak insanity" (mine? or the politicians? I'll let you be the judge).

Not sure how often I'll post, but I need this space to rant. Please join me if you feel so inclined. In the meantime, I encourage you to read an EXCELLENT article, What Makes Americans Vote Republican that calls for Democrats to radically rethink their approach to campaigning.

Its warnings resonated with the original message from my niece that started The Scarlet Alert in the first place: namely, we need to learn what motivates people if we want to make ourselves heard such that they (in this case) support the Democratic agenda.

It's humbling, yet well written (especially for an academic author) and it makes its case.

Til my next rant,
Yours truly,
Scarlet

We need leadership NOW

2006-01-09T09:50:00.000-05:00

Thomas Friedman has written an op-ed in the 6 Jan NYT, The New Red, White and Blue (requires $ubscription to read the entire article).

While much of it contains the ranting that drives me nuts about peak-oilers, I definitely concur with the following:

As we enter 2006, we find ourselves in trouble, at home and abroad. We are in trouble because we are led by defeatists - wimps, actually... when it comes to what is actually the most important issue in U.S. foreign and domestic policy today - making ourselves energy efficient and independent, and environmentally green - they ridicule it as something only liberals, tree-huggers and sissies believe is possible or necessary. Sorry, but being green, focusing the nation on greater energy efficiency and conservation, is not some girlie-man issue. It is actually the most tough-minded, geostrategic, pro-growth and patriotic thing we can do...

No matter what happens in Iraq, we cannot dry up the swamps of authoritarianism and violent Islamism in the Middle East without also drying up our consumption of oil - thereby bringing down the price of crude. A democratization policy in the Middle East without a different energy policy at home is a waste of time, money and, most important, the lives of our young people...

We need a president and a Congress with the guts... to also impose a gasoline tax and inspire conservation at home. That takes a real energy policy with long- term incentives for renewable energy - wind, solar, biofuels - rather than the welfare-for-oil-companies-and-special-interests that masqueraded last year as an energy bill...

Other Voices, Other Leaders

2006-01-06T17:32:00.000-05:00

Okay... Oprah didn't listen. Disappointing, but not surprising.

There are women who are more inspiring. We should be listening to them, and doing our own action:

Check out Julia Butterfly Hill (known for the two years she lived in the top of an endangered tree) speaking about how sustainability is not a way of DOING, but a way of BEING. Reminds me of this quote from the Buddhists:

"It does no good to search frantically for peace, to seek anxiously after love or joy or freedom. If you want to find joy, do joy. If you want for there to be peace, do peace... Be what you want the world to be. Stop fighting. You are the only one standing between you and peace." - The Key

And if you want to listen to more like her, check out Big Picture TV.

If Oprah Talks, Will People Listen?

2005-10-27T17:10:00.000-04:00

Yes, I sometimes take my lunch late and watch Oprah. Today I have no problem admitting it. I would like to think that I witnessed a world-changing event. Or at least a U.S.-changing event. Because, usually, when Oprah talks, people listen.

Today (27 October 2005), Oprah brought global warming to the average American household.

After giving away $100,000 to two women who turned in a man charged with child abuse, Oprah welcomed Leonardo DiCaprio on to talk about global warming.

First she and Leonardo attempted to put into normal-speak an explanation of global warming, and why we should worry about it.

I think the movement could use a better spokesperson. In fact, Oprah did a better job of explaining the issue for her audience than Leo did. I mean, I'm glad he's doing this, but he could use some coaching in how to speak about it.

The topic of peak oil (without calling it that) also came up, as our dependence on oil was named the #2 cause of global warming (after coal), and that this oil was running out. Then they talked about ways that the normal person could make a difference. The top three recommendations were:

Buy compact florescent light bulbs for at least the top five most used lights in your home. (If everyone in the U.S. did this, it would be the equivalent of getting 8 million cars off the road.)
Get rid of your SUV and buy a hybrid or other fuel-efficient car. (Oprah admitted that she drives one of the five worst SUVs -- in terms of pollution and mileage -- on the market. Why didn't diCaprio challenge her to get rid of it?!)
When making a major appliance purchase look for the energy star label that indicates high efficiency.

Here's what I wrote to Oprah after the show:

Kudos to you for discussing global warming.
And Oprah... what will it take for you to give up that SUV? How about using yourself-- as you so often do-- as a model -- this time for becoming more environmentally conscious?

Make some sort of challenge to encourage others to give up their gas-guzzlers. Perhaps start with your colleagues-- other celebrities. But also be sure to encourage us "normal folk".
When you give things away, give environmentally-conscious things away.
Get Nate to take on making "green" renovations-- not to fancy multi-million dollar homes, but to the homes of the "rest of us".
Encourage people to conduct home energy audits (it's going to be cold and heating fuel will be expensive this year).
Commit to printing O Magazine on recycled paper with soy-based ink.

You are the most powerful woman in the world and people pay attention. You started making a HUGE contribution to public understanding of global warming with today's show. Now follow through!

I realize now I would have added something about diapers. At the end of the show, Oprah presented the disturbing facts about how many diapers fill the landfill every day. And that they don't break down for several years. But she didn't offer a solution. So instead of making all those moms feel bad, what can they DO?

All in all, though, I thought it was a great show, and I am eager to see what happens next...

Conduct a Home Energy Audit

2005-10-21T08:49:00.000-04:00

As we watch the price of natural gas soar (we use it to heat our home), we're looking into how we can tighten up the house. We have storm windows that offer some help, but this 1908 house has a lot of "leaks". We've decided to get a home energy audit-- where a professional comes through your house and tells you where and how you can further tighten up. Then we'll negotiate with our landlord what we can do. (We figure it's in her best interest to tighten up the house-- it will improve its marketability, and should she choose to return to it, save her $$ on energy bills.)

While searching for information about such audits, I found the following resources:

NPR did a story Oct 7, 2005 on How to fight Rising Home Heating Costs. It has a lot of great tips you can implement. Some easier than others.
The Alliance to Save Energy has an online home energy check-up, and they've included a PDF workbook to do the audit with your children (frankly, *I* felt that *I* could learn from this booklet...
The ASE also teamed up with Washington Gas to produce a video about home energy audits
The U.S. Dept of Housing & Urban Development (HUD) hosts a page about energy audits.
The U.S. Dept. of Energy (DoE) hosts a page about Home Energy Efficiency, including a page about home energy audits. They also include recommendations for choosing and preparing for a professional home energy audit. They also say that you can contact your state or local "energy or weatherization office" to find professional home energy auditors.
I found the Washington DC Energy Office. It's "Home Energy Rating System Program (HERS) will establish and promote a home energy rating system for existing homes. Through a home audit, HERS will identify energy efficiency improvements that need to be made to reduce home operating costs and improve comfort. Such improvements and eventual rating will allow homeowners to qualify for lower rate mortgages or energy efficiency home mortgages. The HERS rating should also help home sellers property, to be more attractive to buyers. Energy efficiency improvements will be financed by energy efficiency mortgages offered by financial institutions brought into the program by the DCEO." Unfortunately there is no information provided on the site about how to get such an audit. (I've emailed sharon.cooke AT dc.gov for more info.)
Another helpful web site said that you can find professional auditors through the National Association of Energy Service Companies but I found nothing there (I've emailed them for more info).
Ahh... isn't this sweet? The American Petroleum Institute is also recommending home energy audits.

Regarding professional home energy audits, Montgomery County's web site recommends: "To find a professional energy auditor you can contact your local gas or electric utility [I looked on the Washington Gas web site and could not find info on getting someone into the house]; check the telephone directory for residential energy audits under "Energy;" or contact the National Association of Energy Service Companies (NAESCO), 1440 New York Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005, phone (202) 371-7812. If you use an energy services company, be sure to check company references, insist that the contractor use a "calibrated" blower door for accuracy, and ask for a thermographic inspection. These precautions should allow an effective and helpful determination of your home's energy efficiency needs."

What is very frustrating about all this research is that after an hour of pretty extensive searching, I could find NOTHING that lists specific places to call to request such an audit or to find out how much it would cost.

It's not the talk; it's the action!

2005-10-17T10:29:00.000-04:00

I think I've mentioned (more than a few times) that I have been unable to "reach" my niece with my efforts to engage her and my other relatives in issues related to peak oil. But I shouldn't be worried... she and her mate are doing great work in Boulder, just the kind of work I think is needed. Glad to see it!

March 7, 2005: The Kitchen Drives Monroe Organic Farms to Double Its Production
August 23rd, 2004: Hugo Matheson brings Slow Food to his table at The Kitchen
May 15th, 2004: The Kitchen and Whole Foods Boulder team up to bring sustainable Seafood to Boulder residents

Thank God for Friends!

2005-10-07T10:34:00.000-04:00

Dear Debra forwarded me this link that was a perfect postscript to my encounter with Jared Diamond.

Ideal Bite: A sassier shade of green, a source of irreverent "green" advice geared towards busy people with busy lives. Be sure to sign up for their free daily email tips for living a greener lifestyle. And they also have a blog I intend to follow.

Yes it may be a bit too irreverent, but dear God... we need that sometimes...

One of my worst days

2005-10-07T08:44:00.000-04:00

I usually read every night before falling asleep.

My preferred genre is fiction. But I'm all out of fiction (that I've read anyway-- in some cases multiple times-- it's clearly time for a trip to the library).

My husband's doom-and-gloom book pile, however, grows weekly.

Last night I picked up Jared Diamond's Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.

I'd read most of his Guns Germs and Steel, a book that seems to have crossed over from doom-and-gloomers to the mainstream. (I saw my sister reading it last year.) So I thought, maybe this one will pull me in.

Like my niece with Heinberg's writing, I could not get through the first chapter.

I picked it up again this morning, and tried again. Couldn't do it.

The first chapter focuses mostly on what's happening to Montana-- about the impact on the environment and the economy of the failed mining and timber industries. (That's as far as I got, so if he wrote more about Montana, I didn't read it.)

Folks, this is a heavy book. Just shy of 600 pages. I don't think I got through 30. What he's describing in this chapter is just one state. This stuff is happening all over the place. This book, like so many others out there (as well as a good portion of what's on National Public Radio) only serves to convince me that we, the human species, are doomed. We've doomed ourselves. We've so badly exploited the earth that sustains us that she will simply stop sustaining us. She is the landlord; we are her tenants. She will boot us out. I have no doubt of it. Whether through famine, flood, bird flu, terrorism or whatever, we will be ousted from our tenancy.

And, as the rest of the title of Diamond's book makes clear, we will have CHOSEN to be evicted. Chosen by our actions, by our inactions, by our ignorance, by our utter arrogance.

This isn't fatalism. If it was, I'd throw in the towel. I'm not doing that. I will live my life, continue to do what I think is right. Continue to have discussions about living sustainably and in respect of nature, continue to work on my own habits that work against this. But I have absolutely no doubt that Mother Earth will survive, and we will not. We have broken our lease agreement time and time again. Will will be evicted.

For me the only question is "when?"

My Peak-Oil To-Do List

2005-10-06T21:41:00.000-04:00

Why? Why am I doing this? Why is this important to me?
I am doing this for Luca. For Jason. For August. For Jesse. For Ella. For Hannah.
For Henry and Corinne. For Ethan and ... for the ones who aren't born yet.
That's why.

Research local and organic sources of foods
- Jonas and Judith Stoltzfus (jstoltz AT pa.net) run JuJo Acres Farm which produces USDA certified organic limousin beef (no growth stimulants, hormone treatments or antibiotics used). They are in Loysville, Perry County, PA and welcome visitors (717) 536-3618. They sell by the pound or by the quarter. Their steaks run from $5.09-$15.89 per pound, depending on the cut. Roasts run from $3.56-$7.13 per pound. You can also purchase quarters for as low as $3.10 per pound plus the cost of butcher's fees ($.18-.28/lb.). (Prices changing 1 Nov '05.) Email them for a brochure and directions to the farm. They have family in Annapolis, MD and Falls Church, VA, and can arrange to bring meet with them when they visit.
  
  I use GMail for various things, and sponsored links that came up related to the above message included these:
- Lasater Grasslands Beef in Colorado. [Putting here for my family members there...]
- Organic Prairie Farms sell in Safeway and Whole Foods throughout most of the country.
Start a neighborhood discussion group to talk more about local self reliance and other issues about the impact of peak oil.
Examine our stock of jars and get what we need to do some canning.
Learn how to can and/or dry fruit and vegetables.
Start improving the soil in our garden.
Research locally made clothing and shoes.
- Organic People directory of organic foods and products
- Union Jean Company supplies American-made, union-made products.
Build up a store of two months worth of food.
Rebuild the emergency preparedness materials that we compiled for y2k.
Get worms for our compost pile.
Buy wind power from our local utility. It IS available. See wges.com
Be an Activist.
- Organic Consumers Association has a campaign going on to get one million people signed up by Dec 2006 to commit to buying locally and organically.

Why the Scarlet Alert?

2005-09-30T10:45:00.000-04:00

I am married to a peak-oiler.

As a result, I am exposed on a daily basis to a range of facts, figures, predictions, concerns that some days I simply have to block out-- I can't take it any more! And other days, this information moves me to action.

One of the things that moved me to action was Richard Heinberg's article about the threats of peak oil to our global food supply. I found this particularly disturbing and felt moved to inform my parents, siblings, and nieces and nephews (the latter group ranging in age from 18 to 36, two of them already raising children).

I summarized Heinberg's article, making clear (I thought) why this issue was important to my family members and what they should be paying attention to. (Lesson #1: never use "should" with any family member-- perhaps with anyone!)

While only two of my 25 relatives responded, the response of my 30-year-old niece -- a highly intelligent, educated mother-- flattened me cold, and I realized I had to return to the drawing table in order to figure out how to engage my friends and family members more effectively about the issue of peak oil and its ramifications. Basically, she told me that my rantings reminded her of Gone With the Wind's Scarlett O'Hara digging bare-handed through Tara's soil for potatoes that she tried to eat raw in her hunger, only to vomit immediately: "I'll never be hungry again!"

Thank God I've got some humility and humor (and love) in my life; instead of being offended or defensive, I decided to embrace the Scarlett role and that I would preface any future peak oil-related communications with "Scarlet Alert" (extra "t" intentionally dropped).

Having recently attended a powerful conference on the subject of peak oil, I knew it was time for such an alert, and having recently entered the blogosphere, I figured, well, let's make it a blog.

So here I am... yours truly,

There are no dilithium crystals..

2005-09-29T11:26:00.000-04:00

One of the main arguments I hear against worrying so much about peak oil is that we will find or develop technological solutions to make up for our current dependency on oil. My niece has not been the only person to tell me she wanted to hear about solutions, not problems. And I can certainly empathize. In addition to having faith in humanity's ability to innovate, especially in a pinch, I'm also one of those people who gets really annoyed at the person in the staff meeting who bitches about what's not working without suggesting ways for improvement.

And my nephew responded to my initial email with quite a long, thoughful review of many alternatives that should not only give us hope, but whose existence really should set aside one's concern about peak oil.

But there's this "little problem" with pretty much every solution proposed. NONE of them will come close, in the right amount of time, to serving as an alternative for our dependency on oil.

At the Peak Oil & Community Solutions conference Sept 23-25, Steve Andrews (one of the people creating the new ASPO-USA), suggested these questions to ask of any alternatives:

How much transportation can be supplied by the alternative fuel? [70% of US oil consumption goes to transportation.]
What is the projected timetable for the arrival of the supply? Will it be available when we need it?
What is the NET ENERGY contribution of any new option? (i.e., what is the benefit of the energy MINUS the cost of getting at it?)
What are the political, economic, environmental and technological barriers to the alternative fuel's arrival in the speculated quantities?

With these questions in mind, here's what Andrews had to say about the most popularly suggested alternatives:

"Unconventional oils" (Canadian tar sands, Venezuelan heavy oil, Colorado shale) require enormous amounts of high quality energy to get the oil out, and will only slow but not reverse the rate of decline after oil peaks. (Great quote attributed to Randy Udall: "Why would a person feed their dog steak in order to eat Alpo?")
While increasing vehicle efficiency is a "slam-dunk mitigating action," replacing the existing auto fleet (235 million in the U.S. alone) would be excrutiatingly slow. Currently hybrid cars in the U.S. make up for only 0.1% (that's one-tenth of one percent) of US cars. While hybrid sales may increase 1% this year, it's not fast enough.
Ethanol from corn has too low of an energy-return-on-energy-investment (1:1.35 to 1:1.6). Switchgrass and other cellulose-based biofuels offers a substantially higher return, but even these would only provide X-thousand barrels/day at full tilt. (The U.S. uses 21 MILLION barrels per day.)
Coal is the ultimate climate-change bad actor, and while more plentiful than oil, is non-renewable.
Nuclear's lethal byproducts last many thousands of years. [And while not discussed at this conference, I've also heard that some insanely high # of new plants would need to be built per year in order to compensate for our current energy use.]
Wind and solar are renewable, although intermittent (on nature's schedule, not ours); they work well today, but utility companies are kicking and screaming down this path; change is slow.
Hydrogen (an energy carrier, not a fuel itself) has a negative return on investment and enormous technical barriers to make it a viable alternative by 2020.

In light of these considerations, you can see how it's difficult to be gung ho about alternative sources of energy...

Now what?!

2005-09-28T23:26:00.000-04:00

Okay... so all the various alternative solutions to our appetite to energy seem abysmal. What now?

What other types of solutions or priorities should we be looking at to address the impact of peak oil? I compiled these from notes I took at a number of sessions at the Peak Oil & Community Solutions conference. Communities could (note I don't use "should") become increasingly self-sufficient by taking the following actions:

secure local food, water and energy sources, with a particular emphasis on ensuring and purifying water;
reduce the need for transportation (97% of transportation is still fueled by oil);
foster local manufacturing of essential goods;
plan for long-term emergency services (we can learn alot from the recent hurricanes);
assess the community's needs and vulnerabilities and create a step-by-step plan for filling the gaps. (Sebastapol, CA and Wilmington, IN are two places that are doing something like this.)
Consider "fee-bates," a concept supposedly introduced by Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute that would offer rebates to those car-owners whose vehicles achieve greater than 40 mpg.

We can also learn from two countries whose oil was effectively cut off due to the end of the Soviet Union:

We could learn from Cuba's experience: they had contingency plans, they learned to trade with others, they developed alternatives that now work for them;
Or we could learn from North Korea which experienced immense suffering because they could not produce enough food for their people; millions died. Their woes were exacerbated by floods and droughts.

Another solution being proposed by Richard Heinberg is an Oil Depletion Protocol that calls for oil importing nations to reduce their imports by an agreed-upon yearly percentage (the World Oil Depletion Rate), while exporting countries would agree to reduce their rate of exports by their national Depletion Rate.

Heinberg is hopeful that even oil companies could get behind such a proposal. Boom and bust is not good for companies, and there is plenty of precedence for modifying production to maintain stability.

And then, of course, there are the solutions that no on really wants to talk about:

radically reduce our current use of energy
limit our numbers; reduce our population
distribute resources more equitably, globally

Just the facts, ma'am...

2005-09-28T11:05:00.000-04:00

The Peak Oil & Community Solutions conference inundated us with facts and figures. But these seemed to be the key ones to pay attention to:

The world currently consumes 84 million barrels of petroleum PER DAY. Of this the U.S. consumes 21 million barrels -- 25 percent. SOURCE
One gallon of gas is the equivalent of a physically fit male human pushing an automobile 20 miles. More info on energy equivalents of gas/oil.
Discovery of new oil fields has declined, which automatically is followed by declines in production. Today, we find only one-third as much new oil as we consume each year. REPEAT: we are going through oil 3x faster than we are finding it!
While human population more than doubled between 1950 and 2005 (SOURCE), the population of automobiles increased ten-fold! There are 800 million autos worldwide (Automotive Digest claims about 600mil); 235 million of them are in the U.S. As of July 2005, SUV sales were 59% of all U.S. car sales.
Transportation accounts for about 70% of all U.S. oil consumption. 97% of all U.S. transportation is fueled by oil.
The average piece of food travels 1500-2500 miles between where it's grown/produced to our dinner tables. SOURCE
While the U.S. (with the largest consumption of oil) increased its consumption only 2.8% in the last year, China's oil consumption (in 2nd place) increased almost 16% in the last year.
Three nations dominate oil production, pumping out 1/3 of the world's daily total. Once they peak, the world peaks. Keep your eye on Saudi Arabia. [Gee, I'm sorry.... why? are we in Iraq again??]

But truly, this is humbling stuff, folks...

We Are Where We Eat

2005-09-26T15:52:00.000-04:00

When I initially was moved to communicate with my family members about peak oil, it was the issue of food that shook me up. Heinberg's article was a "thunk" on my head as he described in painful detail how dependent we are on the availability of cheap fuel (oil) to get the food on our table. If the average piece of food travels 1500 miles to get to us, and if the price of oil impacts the transportation industry, then how are we going to get food when the price of oil gets too high? (Just the other morning, I heard on the news that two commercial airlines are cancelling a number of their regular flights due to the price of fuel.)

That seemed to me to be the biggie-- the one place where darn it we better do something or at least pay attention. But Heinberg (who I see as one of the least of the doom-and-gloomers) was too doom and gloom for my niece. So if she won't listen to Heinberg, who might she listen to?

One of my favorite presenters at the conference was Oklahoma-based Robert Waldrop who created a state-wide food coop of locally grown/produced food (meat as well as vegetables). I also loved him because of his jovial Santa-like presence and the fact that he didn't use PowerPoint.

Waldrop had lots of advice about addressing the food situation. Some of it easier than others to implement.

He recommends starting with your own kitchen, your own diet. Pay attention. Do you know where your food comes from? Start to notice where your favorite apples are from, where your chicken or beef is shipped from, etc... Just notice. That in and of itself can be a major eye-opener and start to change (a little) what you buy.

Do you know what food is available to you, locally? (Try Local Harvest.) Waldrop also recommended staying out of supermarkets as much as possible. Buy from local farmers markets and coops. Look into Community Supported Agriculture options in your community (CSAs).

While not discussed by Waldrop, check out the folks in Canada who are trying out the 100-mile "diet". Another group in California, the Locavores is doing something similar in the SF Bay Area.

Waldrop also discussed what macrobiotic dieters have known for years: eat with the season. Not only does it support your local economy (and reduce oppression of third world farmers), it's also healthier and tastes better. Paraphrasing Waldrop:

We all bemoan the fact that grocery store tomatoes taste like crap; well there's a good reason why. They're not grown for taste. They're bred and grown for shipping long distances, still green at the time they're harvested, and then they're GASSED in order to turn red.

If you eat meat, poultry and fish, he says, never buy from confined animal feeding operations. This means most chicken sold in supermarkets. Look for meats that are 100% forage fed and free ranging. Buy organic.

Grow at least some of your own food. It's possible to grow a lot of food in a small space. Join a community garden. Use containers if you have no access to open plots of soil. (Waldrop is growing potatoes in buckets.)

A big challenge for me personally is Waldrop's recommendation that instead of thinking "what will we have for dinner tonight?" think about what will we eat THIS SEASON. With Safeway only a block from my house, I had been feeling so good that I could WALK to and from the store with my canvas or string bags, even! And I do this every time it's my turn to cook, figuring out what I'm going to make at pretty much the last minute. The idea of prepping for a week, much less a SEASON, is really going to require some major mind shifting...

Does this seem like too much? Consider these additional options from the Locavores...

Katrina as a Metaphor for Peak OilH

2005-09-25T23:26:00.000-04:00

Offered for consideration by Richard Heinberg at the Peak Oil & Community Solutions Conference, September 23-25, Yellow Springs, OH:

Katrina is a metaphor for how peak oil will play out...

We had plenty of warning...
There was a shameful lack of response...
Communities were overwhelmed...
The most effective were the smaller groups who did their own coordinating

Well, at least there's an up-note at the end there...

Heinberg went on to say that Hurrican Katrina also served as a teaching opportunity. Higher gas prices will bring on stress that will hopefully raise the general understanding of our dependence on oil, encouraging people to become more informed and make better choices and decisions about how they live their lives.